IDA: Ida is back over the northwestern Caribbean after a jaunt over Nicaragua and Honduras. The center is a little more than 300 miles south southeast of the northeastern tip of the Yucatan. The system became a tropical storm overnight over the warm waters of the Caribbean. As is often the case, there is a great deal of uncertainty about the amount of strengthening that will occur as the storm moves steadily north northwestward and grazes the Yucatan Sunday night, on its way into the southern Gulf. But I would bet that it does become a hurricane by Sunday afternoon over the Caribbean. Ida will move into the Central Gulf and likely merge with a frontal system, becoming extratropical by late Tuesday, when it is just 300 miles south of Mobile. As it encounters increasing shear, it should weaken. It might even turn south over the Gulf before dissipating. This is the forecast. But as we always say with tropical systems, expect the unexpected.

A NEW WORK WEEK: Moisture will move back into Alabama by late Monday, bringing increasing rain chances in the Monday night – Tuesday time frame. The possibility of rain will be affected by the final disposition of Ida. Stay tuned. For now, the expect about three quarters of an inch of rain. High pressure will build in by Wednesday, giving us fair weather for the latter half of the week. It looks like the nice weather could continue into the weekend, although forecast confidence drops as we head through time.

FOOTBALL FORECAST: Alabama hosts LSU at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa (2:30 p.m. kickoff). The sky will be sunny with 73 degrees at kickoff, with temperatures falling back into the 60s by the end of the game. You can expect very similar weather for the Auburn/Furman game at Jordan-Hare Stadium; lots of sunshine with temperatures in the 67 to 70 degree range during the game. UAB celebrates homecoming Saturday, as the Blazers host Florida Atlantic at Legion Field (1:00 p.m. kickoff). Expect a sunny sky for that game with a kickoff temperature near 71 degrees.

WEATHERBRAINS: Rave reviews for episode 197. Dr. Chuck Doswell was the guest WeatherBrain. Ear his interesting take on severe weather, the National Weather Service, the warning process and television meteorologists. Listen at www.WeatherBrains.com or subscribe on iTunes. It’s free!

ON THIS DATE IN 2005: Record warmth across much of the country as an autumn warm spell kept most of the country in warmth. Record highs were set at Birmingham (82F) and Tuscaloosa (85F). Six records were set across Central Mississippi, including 86F at Jackson. It was 84F at Fort Smith AR. Other records included 86F at Monroe LA and 83F at Pensacola FL. The reading of 86F at Tupelo tied the all-time November high for the station. 86F at Tulsa and 88F at Childress TX were both records. Follow my weather history tweets on Twitter @wxhistorian.